Nearly three weeks after the midterm elections, the outcome of three tightly contested House races remains unresolved, leaving questions about the exact size of the Republican majority in the 119th Congress. Races in California’s 13th and 45th districts, along with Iowa’s 1st district, are still too close to call.
In California’s 13th district, Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by just 204 votes, with less than 3% of ballots remaining to be counted. The district’s history of razor-thin margins is well-known—Duarte won in 2022 by only 564 votes in a contest that wasn’t decided until December.
Meanwhile, California’s 45th district sees Democrat Derek Tran narrowly leading Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by 545 votes, with 99% of the vote tallied. Steel, who has been a prominent figure in the GOP, faces significant challenges in retaining her seat in this battleground district.
Iowa’s 1st district is similarly tight, with Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks holding an 800-vote edge over Democrat Christina Bohannan. Bohannan has requested a recount, which Miller-Meeks criticized as unnecessary and a misuse of taxpayer money. Despite Decision Desk HQ calling the race for Miller-Meeks, the Associated Press has yet to confirm the result.
Currently, the Associated Press reports Republicans holding 219 seats to Democrats’ 213. If GOP candidates maintain their leads in the uncalled races, the final tally would give Republicans 221 seats to Democrats’ 214, solidifying a slim majority. However, this number could fluctuate with upcoming special elections to fill seats vacated by Reps. Elise Stefanik (NY), Mike Waltz (FL), and Matt Gaetz (FL).
As counting continues, Republican leadership, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), faces the challenge of preparing for a narrow majority that will require careful coalition-building to advance the GOP agenda in the next Congress.
