Pollster defends accuracy of wrong election prediction


Listen To Story Above

Ann Selzer recently addressed the controversy surrounding her Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points before he ultimately won by 13 points in the election.

During a panel discussion at Iowa Press with Kay Henderson and other journalists, Selzer acknowledged she hasn’t identified the cause of the significant polling error.

“I’m not here to break any news. If you were hoping that I had landed on exactly why things went wrong, I have not. It does sort of awaken me in the middle of the night and I think, well maybe I should check this, this is something that would be very odd if it were to happen,” she said. “But we’ve explored everything. The Des Moines Register in an unprecedented move for transparency has put online our cross tabs, our waiting system and my analysis and that I’ve not needed to update because it was pretty complete. We don’t know. Do I wish I knew? Yes, I wish I knew.”

The veteran pollster firmly rejected accusations of deliberately manipulating results, emphasizing the serious nature of such allegations.

“Let’s deal with the allegations because I am mystified about what the motivation anybody thinks I had and would act on in such a public poll. I don’t understand it. And the allegations I take very seriously. They’re saying that this was election interference, which is a crime. So, the idea that I intentionally set up to deliver this response, when I’ve never done that before, I’ve had plenty of opportunities to do it, it’s not my ethic,” Selzer said.

“But to suggest without a single shred of evidence that I was in cahoots with somebody, I was being paid by somebody, it’s all just kind of, it’s hard to pay too much attention to it except that they are accusing me of a crime,” she added.

The surprising poll results had sent shockwaves through political circles, given Selzer’s reputation as the “gold standard” in polling. Her findings contradicted other surveys showing Trump leading by up to eight points in Iowa, a state he had previously won in both 2016 and 2020.

Following the election, Selzer announced her retirement from polling through an op-ed in the Des Moines Register. She revealed this decision had been planned well before the controversial poll.

“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” she wrote.

“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work,” she added.

Reflecting on her three-decade career, Selzer highlighted her A+ rating from Nate Silver’s analysis of pollster accuracy, while defending her professional integrity.

“My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships,” she concluded.

 

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR