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Rasmussen Reports has maintained its reputation as one of the industry’s most precise polling organizations in predicting presidential election outcomes, though polling expert Mark Mitchell emphasizes the need for Republican strategists to analyze their underperformance in down-ballot contests.
The final pre-election survey from Rasmussen accurately projected Trump’s victory, showing him leading Harris by 3 percentage points nationally, closely matching his eventual two-point popular vote margin. The polling firm also correctly anticipated Trump’s sweep of all seven battleground states, where their data had indicated narrow leads.
1. Donald Trump’s Victory Cemented, Fate Sealed By Swing States | Republicans Take Senate Control.
Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the Southern border and his siren call to "Make America Great Again ..2 pic.twitter.com/cfxTQE6dH1— SK Chakraborty (@sanjoychakra) November 6, 2024
“I think he’s going to surprise people in the swing states by being to the right of the polls,” Mitchell said on Nov. 2.
During his appearance on Breitbart News Sunday via SiriusXM Patriot 125, Mitchell discussed how Trump’s performance aligned with predictions, but expressed concern about Republicans’ modest gains in congressional and state-level races, despite the president’s substantial victory margin.
“The biggest surprise to me, and something I think Republicans should be asking themselves every day for the next four years, is if the entire country moved seven points to the right, as it seems like it has, why did it only move one or two points to the right in the battlegrounds? That’s the problem,” Mitchell said.
1. Donald Trump’s Victory Cemented, Fate Sealed By Swing States | Republicans Take Senate Control.
Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the Southern border and his siren call to "Make America Great Again ..2 pic.twitter.com/L8iGSrIL8x— SK Chakraborty (@sanjoychakra) November 6, 2024
“This was a massive repudiation of Biden regime leftism, and yet [these are] still very, very meager down-ballot gains.”
While Republicans secured four additional Senate seats, Democratic candidates successfully defended their positions in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. The GOP’s House majority remained intact but saw minimal expansion, and state-level gains were modest, with Republicans acquiring approximately 50 legislative seats nationwide, representing less than a one percent shift.
